This isn’t an OSHA tome about how to make sure you don’t get coffee grounds in your eye at work.  This Musing is about ensuring that you have work to be at.

In the high tech world, being employed is not such a simple task these days.  Layoffs and company shutdowns have been rampant.  What can you do to avoid being a victim of these events?

Up until a couple of years ago, the way we in the high tech world avoided serious periods of payus interruptus was by using our quality of portability.  That is to say, as the fortunes of individual high tech companies waxed and waned – as they inevitably do – we’d simply move from the companies with eroding prospects to the up-and-comers.  In the geocenters of high tech, such as Silicon Valley, the Route 128 corridor and Austin, the talent magnet companies always outnumbered the talent donors, but there were enough of each at any given time to keep the cycle going. 

Right now the system is broken.  Everyone in Silicon Valley is hurting.  And you can’t solve the problem by moving elsewhere because everyone everywhere else in high tech is hurting just as bad.  So the only thing you can do is either take a time out of some kind (if you can afford it), or try to find a place to hunker down and wait until things get back to normal – if that ever happens. 

If you are fortunate to have a job or be a viable candidate for a job, one important thing to evaluate is whether the company’s overall financial situation is in your favor. 

Many people believe that big companies are safer than small companies, but I don’t think that’s generally true.  There are other factors.  In fact, I believe the safest place to be (for a while) is at a freshly funded start-up.  There is a period of unbridled enthusiasm and growth for about 12-18 months after the VCs have put the first $8-12M into a company.  If you can be one of the first employees into such a situation, you can be pretty much guaranteed employment for this period, as long as you are perceived as being an important contributor.  During this time, no one is expecting much from the company.  Nobody worries too much about the market ups and downs because your entry into the market is still safely in the distant future.  Milestones are usually related to early stage documentation such as requirements, architecture, high-level design, etc.  These milestones are usually met pretty well because paper is paper, and you can hide a lot of hand waving assumptions, incorrect analyses, and bad guesses when in the paper deliverable stage. 

A little later on, when the 12-18 month cliff that at one time seemed so far in the future starts to loom near, the team has to demonstrate progress that can’t be faked – working code, working RTL, customer interest, key channel relationships, etc.  If you can demonstrate you are on the right path, the company can raise more money and you can be ensured of those bi-weekly paychecks for another year or so.  And so on.    

If you are looking for a situation a little more long term and one which the sword dangling over your head might be a little less obvious, yet you still want to stay in high tech, then get into an organization at a stable company that is maintaining a product line which represents a large revenue stream for the company.  In other words, be a flea on the cash cow.   As much as companies desire to break into new markets and expand their opportunity, they are loath to starve their cash cows in order to fund such efforts.  So the cash cows remain well-fed, bathed, and housed, usually far beyond the level that really makes sense any more.  The work in such organizations is usually fairly mundane: regression testing of new releases, cost reduction, going from an 8 port to a 12 port line card, adding sixteen new objects to the MIB, training channel partners on these earthshaking developments, convincing customers to replace the stuff they bought last year with the 3% incrementally better stuff you are offering this year, etc., etc.  But what you trade off in boredom at work you gain back via the excitement of getting that paycheck every two weeks.

If you aren’t fully locked in to the development of high tech stuff, and are a bit masochistic, then maybe you are open to a job or career in the area of applications of high tech stuff.  This means joining an IT organization at a stable company selling insurance or cereal or cars or something like that.   Personally, I think IT jobs are tough and thankless.  It’s like being an umpire in a baseball game.  If people notice you, it means you are probably in trouble.  To stay invisible, you’ve got to work 70 hours per week with insufficient budget and constantly changing organizations and priorities.  And you’ve got to have a beeper – the most dreaded of all work tools, in my opinion.  The people who hold these jobs are the Heroes of High Tech.  But they aren’t treated even close to that by the people they serve or their bosses. However, if you have a thick skin, you can probably hold on to such a job for a long time – largely because nobody else wants it. 

There are situations to avoid as well. A company running out of money is an obvious one (although if you are already in a company like that I would recommend playing it out to the end because if a miracle occurs the rewards to you as a survivor could be great).   

A company that almost ran out of money but got fresh funds is also one to look out for.  It’s great for the company to have money in the bank, but the people who provide such money usually do it because they see a great bargain (very low valuation) and are often looking to turn a quick buck rather than build a great company.  Usually in a situation like this, the key founders and contributors who thought they were going to get filthy rich and therefore provided all of the extra energy essential to a start-up have completely lost their stake in the company and now start to work on a 10:00 am to 4:00 pm schedule.  It’s death to a start-up if a few key employees can’t get filthy rich.  The energy level drops and the company suffers.  Often the people who brought in the new money observe this and decide they aren’t going to get a quick return on their investment, and shut the thing down even though there are still millions in the bank. 

Another situation to avoid is an organization in a large company, seemingly well financed and well staffed, chartered with developing products to break into a new market.   Although these efforts start with a lot of enthusiasm, pretty soon it becomes obvious that the target schedule was very optimistic and the investment required highly underestimated.  Or, the market changes.  Or the company strategy shifts and what was once viewed as critical is now viewed as tangential or unimportant.  Or, alternatively, the perceived need becomes even greater and the company decides it needs to acquire its way into the market.  In all cases, you’ve just lost your job, no matter how good of a job you were doing. 

Oh, by the way, beyond looking for a position where the financial situation is in your favor, in small-to-medium companies it also sometimes actually matters what your level of contribution is and how well honed your team skills are.  Usually it helps your cause to be productive, useful, communicative, and pleasant.  Failing that, join the industry press corps.  Failing that, become an industry analyst. Failing that, become a venture capitalist.  Failing that, look for a career in consulting.